Bitcoin2026-09-26 13:57:08Benson Sun says Bitcoin may climb in a slow bull cycle, with institutional divergence as a key warning signCrypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun said he expects Bitcoin to post a slower, step-by-step bull run in this cycle rather than a sharp blow-off top like those seen in 2013 and 2017. In his view, the market may show several local topping signals before a true cycle peak arrives. Sun argued that since 2021, the main source of BTC demand has been shifting away from retail investors toward institutions such as public companies, spot ETF buyers, and corporate treasuries. Because these players mainly buy spot, while some capital also runs delta-neutral arbitrage strategies, traditional cycle-top indicators such as funding rates and the MVRV Z-Score may not return to past extremes. He said a more likely topping pattern in the current market would be fading institutional follow-through rather than fully overheated retail sentiment. To track that, he uses an Institutional Liquidity Index, or ILI, which references overall U.S. dollar liquidity, Strategy’s mNAV, and net Bitcoin ETF flows. A yellow divergence appears when BTC makes a rolling 30-day high without a corresponding rise in ILI. A red divergence appears when BTC breaks an all-time high while ILI diverges and stays below 50. Sun said he uses repeated yellow divergences to reduce altcoin exposure and leverage, then raise BTC allocation over time. If a red divergence appears, he said he would stop participating.310
Bitcoin2026-09-22 09:22:30PlanB says BTC is above all major realized price levels and could set a new high this cyclePlanB said in a post on X that Bitcoin is trading at about $87,000 and has moved above all major realized price levels he tracks. He listed the aggregate realized price at roughly $53,000, the 155-day realized price at about $72,000, and the 2-year realized price at around $86,000. Based on those levels, he said the odds of BTC falling below $53,000 in the current cycle are now low. He also argued that the view that Bitcoin would revisit the aggregate realized price, as it did in prior bear markets, has lost what he described as its last relatively clear condition for holding. In the same post, PlanB said price action in 2025 and 2026 fits the pattern of a historically milder bull-bear cycle. He added that he expects Bitcoin to print a new all-time high during the current halving cycle, which he defined as running from 2024 to 2028.510
Bitcoin2026-09-21 21:49:17Bitcoin closes above 50-week SMA for first time this cycle, Bitcoin Magazine show flags possible regime shiftBitcoin Magazine said in a new Chart of the Day segment that Bitcoin has posted its first weekly close above the 50-week simple moving average in the current cycle, a level the program described as a long-watched dividing line between bull and bear market regimes. In the segment, Sean Hagan said he places roughly 80% confidence on the move representing a genuine regime change. He and Grace Remington also discussed what one more weekly close would need to do to confirm the signal. The show said the indicator has failed to hold only twice in Bitcoin’s history. It also noted that Bitcoin was up nearly 10% on the week and was pushing through $86,000, with the timing lining up closely with the one-year window from all-time high to cycle bottom. Bitcoin Magazine included a disclaimer saying the views expressed were those of the participants, not necessarily those of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or affiliated entities, and that the content was for informational and educational purposes rather than investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. The post was written by Patrick Green.390
bitcoin2026-09-05 06:42:50Bitcoin's Drawdowns Narrow Across Cycles, Rally Magnitudes ShrinkBitcoin's market cycle structure has persisted over 18 years, with drawdowns narrowing from 85% in 2014 to 53% in the 2024-2025 cycle. The magnitude of rallies from cycle lows to subsequent all-time highs has dropped from 580x to 8x. Galaxy Digital's head of research Alex Thorn noted that the current cycle's pullback is significantly smaller. Analyst Willy Woo suggested bitcoin may be transitioning from a four-year to a six-to-eight-year cycle, though the thesis is unconfirmed. James Check observed that the price floor has been rising each cycle while the ceiling remains stable, and Jesse Myers believes bitcoin may have just entered a bull market lasting two to three years.770
Ray Dalio2026-08-24 05:33:29Ray Dalio says the U.S. could face a debt crisis within three yearsBridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said the United States could face a debt crisis within the next three years, according to a Techub News flash citing Cointelegraph. Dalio also said debt-related issues have recently helped drive Bitcoin higher, and that move may point to the start of a new market cycle. The view links Bitcoin’s rise with broader concern over macro uncertainty, framing the price action as part of a response to debt stress rather than an isolated crypto-specific development. Techub added that Dalio, who has long focused on global debt cycles as an investor, is often watched as a reference point for how traditional finance and crypto markets intersect.1050
Bitcoin2026-08-23 07:11:43Bitcoin Puell Multiple rises to 0.96, marking its biggest weekly gain in about three monthsBitcoin’s Puell Multiple has climbed to 0.96, up 0.2 from a week earlier, according to a report cited by ChainCatcher and attributed to South Korea’s Digital Asset. The move marks the indicator’s largest increase in roughly three months, the biggest rise since May this year. The Puell Multiple measures Bitcoin miners’ daily issuance revenue against its 365-day moving average. It is commonly used to gauge miner income conditions and where the market may sit in its broader cycle. Even after the latest increase, the reading remains well below 4, a level that is typically regarded as an overheated zone. The update points to an improvement in the indicator over the past week, while still placing it far from levels usually associated with market overheating.1030
Grayscale2026-08-23 03:27:03Grayscale says current Bitcoin price may offer a better entry point for long-term investorsGrayscale research head Zach Pandl said investors are generally not advised to try to time the market, but argued that Bitcoin’s current price may present a relatively attractive entry point for those with a long-term investment horizon. He framed the view around three factors: structural adoption trends, the market cycle and macro risk. According to Grayscale, Bitcoin’s long-term adoption case remains intact as government debt continues to grow, blockchain technology sees broader use in financial services, and generational shifts reshape portfolio construction. On market cycle signals, the firm noted that the current Bitcoin bear market has lasted about 10 months, while previous bear markets typically ran for 11 to 12 months, suggesting the market may be in the later stage of the downturn. Pandl also said the macro backdrop remains the main uncertainty. If the Federal Reserve raises rates again in the near term, Bitcoin could fall further. If it does not, the market may already have reached a bottom. Grayscale’s overall assessment was that structural adoption, cycle positioning and the broader macro outlook are relatively favorable at present, while the path ahead remains uncertain.1060
Bitcoin2026-08-19 06:48:00Scaramucci says Bitcoin may need another 20 months for a return to $100,000SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said Bitcoin’s tight trading range reflects three forces at work: miners shifting resources toward AI, capital moving into AI investments, and crypto’s position in its four-year market cycle. Speaking in a CNBC interview cited by Yahoo Finance, Scaramucci said he still expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000, though the next catalyst may not arrive for another 20 months. He described Bitcoin as being in a "clear bear market," but argued that the roughly 55% decline in this cycle is materially smaller than the 75% to 80% drawdowns seen in earlier cycles. In his view, that is an encouraging sign because it suggests there are substantial net buyers building for the next bull market. He also noted that over the past three months, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 on only about one-third of trading days, though it did beat major U.S. equity indexes on both Monday and Tuesday this week.1510
